Blake Griffin is now a Detroit Piston (so too are Bryce Johnson and Willie Reed, but this isn't about them). Lets dive into the deal, how it was put together, and it's Pros and Cons. Look for a follow up that goes deeper into the on-court stuff later this week. The pieces: What kind of value is detroit getting?So here's a list of where the assets for this trade came about. It looks like the Pistons gave up a lot, but when you render it down, it's surprising they pulled this off in the first place.
PART 1: AVERY BRADLEY PART 1.5: 2nd round pick (2019) So Avery Bradley was brought in as part of a trade for Marcus Morris, along with a 2019 2nd round pick, the same pick going to LAC. Marcus Morris was brought in from the Suns in a trade before the 15-16 season. A DET 2019 2nd round pick went to PHX for: Morris, Reggie Bullock, and Danny Granger. Granger was cut as an expiring, Bullock has cemented himself in 2017-18 as a valuable role player, and Morris was shipped out. So really, 1/3 of this Griffin trade is comprised of like, 1/2 a 2019 second round pick? That's incredible long-term value. Part 2: TOBIAS HARRIS Tobias Harris was brought to Detroit in a deadline day deal in 15-16 for: Brandon Jennings and Ersan Illyasova. At the time, Jennings was dead cap coming off an Achilles injury, and Ersan was a journeyman role player traded that summer for Caron Butler and Shawne Williams. So, despite the value he accumulated in DET, and how beloved (dearly beloved and deservedly so) he was in DET, Tobias's "value" as of SVG's take-over of the team is really just some expiring/unwanted contracts. A surprisingly low sunk cost. Part 3: BOBAN MARJANOVIC Boban was signed in the blockbuster 2016-17 summer window, using simple cap space. A mild sunk-cost due to our inability to fill that space with a more useful player, but no assets were spent to bring him into DET. It's unfortunate to see another fan favorite depart, but at least he's going with his good buddy. #BobiAndTobi forever. Part 4: 2018 1st round Draft Pick Perhaps the biggest asset to leave Detroit, certainly the biggest asset in terms of the value it had when SVG took office. The 2018 first represents a valuable, small, 4 year contract. It represents possible young players growing up in the D, becoming a star. Unfortunately, they'll do so with LAC now, but fans can breath a little easy - if DET slips up and ends up in the lottery this year, and actually wins the damn thing, they'll keep the pick. If they slip up just a bit, you're only losing the 16th pick or so and that's sucky, but the expected value there is NOT Blake Griffin. THE POINT
The point I'm trying to make here is that yes, the Pistons gave up 5 assets. But when you consider how many trades SVG absolutely crushed to get them, it helps put a little perspective both on how little the Pistons really spent here, and, sadly enough, perhaps how few true assets they've had over the past few years. OK, But was this GOODPUTTING THINGS IN CONTEXT
Lets put this in some context before we go into pros and cons. The first thing to understand is this was not entirely the "desperation" move from Stan Van Gundy that it's been labeled as across national media. That's not to say it's not a big risk taken by a guy whose standing isn't a little rocky, but this kind of swinging-for-the-fences starts up top. The tippity tip top of the organization: Tom Gores. It's important to remember that Gores is not ready to go the other way - tanking. If he had been, 16-17 probably would've been a year to do so. Hell - ANY of the first 3 years had valid points in time to tank. Gores has always wanted butts in seats, respectable performance on the floor, something to sell to the fans and be proud of as an owner. This isn't necessarily ideal - in truth, the best owner is one that greenlights blowing it up, is willing to deal with the pain, stick through it with a great development coach, and come out the other side ready to shock the league. An owner willing to go through the process, and see it through, and not pressure the staff for doing it. But that guy is perhaps non-existent, Philly barely escaped with their lives. And Gores isn't him.
The game-plan for SVG for the last 4 years has been simple and obvious, though it's execution at times uncertain. Play guys to win. Develop them as best as possible, but win games. Look for advantageous trades, get better little by little (Jackson, Harris, Morris all examples). Sign free agents you think fit, even if it means paying a markup. Draft people who fit, even if it means not taking quite as many gambles. For many of us, that last bit stings - was Kennard really better than Mitchell (no, but he's been great!)? Was Stanley that much more of a sure thing than Booker (At the time, yes, but hindsight certainly is 20/20.)? Ellenson is the biggest gamble on talent they've taken, and only because he was the 18th pick in a mediocre draft (He was the right choice. By far.). The fact is, the signings are where the FO has been dragged down, and that topic is a mess. They've overpaid - no question. There's also a surcharge required to get guys to play here - no question. They've perhaps been more generous on one side of that than the other. But all this wraps up into one concept: Gores' goal, and Van Gundy's goal, has always been to make this kind of move. To continue to bump this team up, asset by asset, and get a star. To be as competitive as possible, take the long road, and hope it works out. When you judge "Is this worth it", understand that to them, going backwards isn't an option. I don't necessarily agree. Many don't. But that's consistently been the motto for this ownership and this front office, and it's important to have that context. This is the culmination of the all the little asset-mongering Stan Van Gundy has done over 4 years, and it's always been the kind of thing that was in the plans. PROS AND CONS
Pros:
1) Sheer Star Power: Plain and simple, Griffin is perhaps the biggest single talent on a Detroit Pistons roster since Grant Hill left. Chauncey Billups has a case, and Drummond is carving out one for himself this year, but neither were quite able to carry this kind of weight on their shoulders. Drummond simply can't - his herculean efforts just don't happen with the ball in his hands, he doesn't control his own destiny like Griffin can. Billups, for all his greatness, never had to. For the first time in at least a decade, Detroit has a bona fide ticket-seller, someone to be be a face of the franchise. Someone who can put the ball on the floor, blow by a good defender, and slam it home. 2) Secondary Playmaking: It's long been the (somewhat surprisingly unheralded) Achilles' Heel of this Pistons team that they lacked any kind of secondary playmaking. There are others who can pass - Stanley has the vision, Luke the craft, Bullock the will. But none of the players have been able to put the ball on the floor, draw serious attention, and make the right move, every play. Blake Griffin brings that to the Pistons. He can reset broken offense, create passes out of nothing, even bring the ball up the floor. This takes an incredible burden off the team while Jackson is injured, and off of Jackson when he's healthy. 3) Floor Spacing: Blake Griffin is no knockdown shooter. It'd be a grave mistake to call him one. But he has spent a great deal of his time the last 3 years improving his jumper to a functional level. Blake won't give you 40% from 3, but he's shooting a solid volume (5.7/game) at 35%, a clip solid enough to be respectable. He shoots the long-2s efficiently as well, shooting 43% outside the elbows last year. His gravity as a shooter isn't Curry-esque, but it does allow SVG to continue using 4-OUT concepts alongside his Elbow Motion sets, which is important. 4) Lob City: First: Lobs are FUN. Griffin doesn't drop the hammer as often as he did 5 years ago, but he can still throw them down. More importantly, he can throw them UP - Griffin spent a long time next to DeAndre Jordan perfecting pocket lobs from big man to big man. Not only is this fun, it's a nasty wrinkle that terrifies opponents into collapsing the paint. In addition, it's going to get Andre some easy, exciting scoring looks - and keeping Andre at peak engagment never hurt anybody (It hurts the other team. But i'm not humanizing the enemy.). 5) Free Agency Appeal: The Pistons have had any the last few years. Now, they have a real recruiting duo. Two All-Stars in Blake and Andre. Good overall franchise history. Detroit's not a destination city, and it won't be until Global Warming really shifts into top gear, but maybe having a (second) Star in Detroit gets you slightly higher on the Free Agency pecking order. 6) Lineup Flexibility: Griffin at the 5. For the first time, Detroit has a legitimate 2nd option at C behind Andre to try going at least slightly smaller with, without sacrificing everything. You can play 5-OUT sets with Griffin there, you can rest Andre without losing PNR power. Griffin isn't a small-ball defender, able to switch everything - in fact, Drummond is the better option for defending switches - but he allows an in-game gear-change that Detroit hasn't had. 7) The Youth Movement: Luke Kennard, Reggie Bullock, and Stanley Johnson have all had variable roles to play this year. This move takes out their direct competition - for better or worse, we're going to find out, really quickly, which of these guys is ready for the big stage. 8) Addition By Subtraction: I love Avery Bradley. His game has many, many positives. He did not do well in Detroit. Bradley's shot volume, shot profile, and efficiency never found a happy medium with the Pistons - inefficient long twos, a struggle to make plays with volume touches, a loss of his shooting stroke after his recent injury. Those shots are going to someone else now, and the Pistons may see a bit of Josh Smith Effect take hold because of it. Additionally, his lack of size prevented switching, something the Pistons may encourage more of with bigger replacements in Bullock and Kennard. Versatility is important. Cons: 1) The Injuries: Blake Griffin's injury history is rough. Many of them are flukes - little sprains, little twists, a broken hand punching a trainer. He's had knee injuries. He's changed his playing style to mitigate this, and maybe lost a tad bit of his potency. There's no denying the concerns - SVG himself said it was an important factor they weighed when making the deal. You hope he's luckier hear, but there's full knowledge that 82 games a year for 5 years is a stretch. 2) The Money: Nobody wants to see those numbers on the cap sheet. It's as simple as that. Blake has an option when he's 33 for a 5th year worth near 40 million. He'll be picking that up. It's going to make things hard. Now, Tobias would've commanded 20-25, and Bradley 12-16 at by themselves, so the Pistons aren't necessarily shedding money long-term (they would've at least extended Harris). But Blake's deal is fairly immovable moving forwards - this is a serious commitment to him, on a team without a lot of great mid-level assets to flex around. 3) The Attitude: Detroit Vs. Everybody is the motto around here. But unfortunately, it's been "Blake vs. Everybody" for the Clippers for the last few years. Griffin is leaving a fairly cantankerous situation in LA, where he and CP3 were at each-others throats constantly, in an awkward environment that saw the Sterling Scandal go through and more. Blake is known as a fun loving dude - he's a comic, his commercials are usually great, he's been in movies. But he's known to argue with refs, to let guys into his head etc. Stan Van Gundy is a cool guy, and not a mean man, but he's a nit-picker and very vocal on the sidelines. How will Blake mesh with the team, and the staff? 4) Detroit is NOT LA: Blake Griffin has been dating a Kardashian. He enjoys the LA life. He's been a star in the single biggest market in the NBA, even if he's not a Laker. Detroit is cold during the season. We replace Bright Lights with Blue Collars. Blake's attitude in the Locker Room is one thing, but can Blake be HAPPY here? This could be good for him - a reset, a chance to maybe focus a bit more and cut out some LA noise. But this is as dramatic a shift as any for a guy who was living the LA Life just a few hours ago. 5) Blake is nearly 29: Age is but a number. Unfortunately, numbers still mean stuff, and Blake will be 29 by season's end. That in and of itself is fine, but a few seasons ago Detroit was a very young team on the come-up. With Blake entrenched here, they're now a somewhat senior team - potential no longer applies it's rosy lens to as much of what happens. More than ever, results matter. As I said above, that's always been the plan - but when you shift your timeline like this, your excuses fall short and your expectations shift up. In addition, this is Blake's last big contract, almost for sure, but it's going to be critically important that his eventual decline A) happens later rather than sooner and B) happens as slowly and with as much grace as possible. There's a good chance Blake spends at least the last year of his contract as an overpriced David West. It'll be up to him to continue to manage his game accordingly. 6) No draft pick: For starters, the draft is fun. But that's a flexible contract, your best way at any point in building a team to get talent on the cheap. Maybe even really good talent. Rarely is a contender fulfilled without at least one surprise contributor on a rookie deal. The Pistons didn't do anything crazy - they retain their future picks, and just in case something special happens they can still pick 1-4. But realistically, they've got one less piece of roster flexibility moving forwards and that's undesirable. 7) Depth Issues: The pistons depth has always been a question. At full health, they have had a solid starting unit and a killer bench. When Jackson goes down, chaos ensues. Losing Tobias, Boban, and Bradley means losing at least 2 rotation players. Already somewhat small and sparse at guard, the Pistons didn't get any wings in return. Willie Reed or Bryce Johnson might step up as rotation big men, but Bryce is no more proven than Eric Moreland. Backcourt depth was a concern before, even more so now. BUT HOW SHOULD I FEEEEEEL?
It's not obtuse to be left conflicted here, and my verdict is complicated. Put as simply as I can render it... Be excited. Blake Griffin is fun, he's talented, and the Pistons are bit of wing depth away from making 2-3 solid playoff runs in the coming years. It's been a decade since the going to work team fractured, it's OK to enjoy the little things like maybe winning a first round series. It's also OK to temper that feeling with the knowledge that this isn't going to last, and we're probably going to crash in the end. There's no stopping it - enjoy the ride. I think, metaphorically, it's best to approach the next 3 years like you just got a really good High School kid signed up to play at your school. MSU, Michigan, whoever, just got a 5 star recruit. For the next 3-4 years, you're going to enjoy better basketball than you had before. But it WILL end. And hopefully we're sad it's over, not ecstatic that it's done. I hope to follow this up with a piece on some tactical/schematic changes Griffin brings to the team. Look for that piece in the coming week or so!
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February 2018
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